Take a minute to [un]wind with our Sunday morning newsletter. Grab a cup of coffee and catch up on what you may have missed from [un]Divided this week.
Senate race moves to ‘toss up’
Since the moment Republican Tiffany Smiley entered the race for U.S. Senate in Washington state, I’ve opined that her chances of beating 30-year incumbent Patty Murray are slim.
Will I have to eat crow?
This morning, the Smiley camp is celebrating after Real Clear Politics (RCP) switched the race from “Leans D” to “Toss Up.”
“It’s a great day to be team Smiley,” her communications director, Elisa Carlson, wrote on Twitter.
The change means seven U.S. Senate races are now considered statistical ties. In addition to Washington, those are: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
The shift in Washington reflects Smiley’s slow and steady climb in polling since she entered the race last year. The latest poll, which tipped the scales for RCP, comes from the Trafalgar Group.
While Trafalgar is considered partisan (R), FiveThirtyEight gives it a high rating for accurate polling.
The poll, taken days after Smiley and Murray met in a televised town hall debate, puts the race within the margin of error – with Smiley at 48.2% and Murray at 49.4%.
The poll surveyed 1,207 likely Washington voters, with 44.2% identifying as Democrats and 33.4% identifying as Republicans.
In case you are still an undecided voter, take a few minutes to watch my sit-down interview with Tiffany Smiley and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, who was in the state this week as a campaign surrogate. We discuss issues that matter to swing voters, such as abortion and the economy.
LIVE October Q&A
Speaking of the election, our October subscriber Q&A will be held TONIGHT at 8pm PT. Set a reminder and bring your best questions! I won't tell you who to vote for, but I'm happy to discuss the implications of each race.
Local races to watch
While discussion focuses on control of Congress, I’ve been asked to share some thoughts on local races as well. We tend to shy away from hyper-local races on the podcast since some listeners don’t live in Washington state.
But if you do, here are just a few legislative races I have my eyes on:
26th District Senate race: This race has become one of the most expensive in the state - with candidates raising a combined $1.4 million. Incumbent Senator Emily Randall (D) is running against Republican challenger Jesse Young, a current state representative. The 26th District serves the Bremerton area and is seen as a race that could help flip control of the state senate to the GOP.
While Randall has tried to tone down her views to appeal to moderate voters, she has struggled to defend her support of controversial police reform laws in Olympia - like the bill limiting police pursuits. Young has said he would seek to repeal that law.
Young has been painted by opponents as an extremist who stood behind State Rep. Matt Shea after he was ousted from his own caucus. An independent investigation accused Shea of engaging in acts of domestic terrorism.
42nd District Senate race: This is the seat left open by the late Senator Doug Ericksen, who passed last year.
Simon Sefzik was appointed to fill the vacancy, becoming the youngest state senator in Washington's history (he was born in 1999, let that sink in!)
Running to replace him is Democrat Sharon Shewmake, who already serves in the State House of Representatives.
The 42nd District serves Whatcom County.
31st District Senate race: Senator Phil Fortunato is the last remaining Republican serving in a King County legislative district - will a former Republican take that distinction away from him?
Chris Vance, the onetime state GOP chair who left the party over his distaste for Donald Trump, is running as an independent to unseat Fortunato.
The 31st District represents the Auburn area.
Now, it’s impossible to say whether Republicans in Washington state can retake the state house or senate. There simply isn’t reliable data at the local level. Republicans would need nine seats in the House and four seats in the Senate to gain control.
Fake Tweeps fool media
Friday on the podcast we discussed Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover and the unhinged reaction to it.
Enter Rahul Ligma and Daniel Johnson (get it, Ligma-Johnson?)
The men stood outside Twitter headquarters this week holding carboard boxes, posing as fired Twitter data engineers. Boy did the media eat it up.
CNBC Tech Reporter Deirdre Bosa breathlessly reported on the unfortune of the two men, even sharing that one owned a Telsa and now won't be able to make payments!
"They are visibly shaken," she wrote.
Despite the internet quickly identifying the duo as hoaxsters, Deirdre has left up her original tweets, following them with a meek quasi-correction and restricting replies to her account.
Now, in case you're inclined to give these reporters the benefit of the doubt, allow me to detail the red flags that even a blind person could have spotted.
First - Ligma held up a copy of Michelle Obama's autobiography, shouting "Michelle Obama wouldn't have happened if Elon Musk owned Twitter!"
Classic.
But it was Johnson who really gave away the game. During an interview, he said Musk's version of free speech was "Nazis saying that trans women shouldn't use women's locker rooms."
Then, this:
"I gotta touch base with my husband and my wife, I gotta get out of here," he said. "Thank you."
Hold the Line
I joined Seattle Police Officers' Guild President Mike Solan on his Hold the Line Podcast this week. I really enjoyed the conversation and if you want to hear my thoughts on just about everything happening in Seattle right now, you can watch here.
Housekeeping
One last reminder about tonight’s LIVE Q&A. It will be the last one before Election Day!
Have a greet week and thank you for your commitment to give common sense a comeback!
